Komárom 3–1 Haladás VSE: Result & Stats

Komárom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Haladás VSE

3/17/2024

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 20MOLAJ Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Komárom44%

×Draw25%

Haladás VSE31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KomáromExpected goals in this matchHaladás VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.28

Komárom

1.58

Haladás VSE

1.28

Komárom creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.64

creates per match

1.27

1.29

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Komárom

1.64

Haladás VSE

1.27

allows per match

Komárom

1.29

Haladás VSE

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Komárom+0.00on par

Haladás VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárom ↓

Haladás VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Komárom or draw

69%

Komárom or Haladás VSE

75%

Draw or Haladás VSE

56%

Winning margin

Komárom wins by 2+

22%

Haladás VSE wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Komárom 1+ goals

79%

Komárom 2+ goals

47%

Komárom 3+ goals

21%

Haladás VSE 1+ goals

72%

Haladás VSE 2+ goals

37%

Haladás VSE 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Komárom (draw refunded)

59%

Haladás VSE (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Haladás VSE away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárom attack 1.64 + Haladás VSE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Haladás VSE attack 1.27 + Komárom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Komárom scores more

44%

level

25%

Haladás VSE scores more

31%

Komárom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Komárom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff