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Komárom vs Gyori ETO II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Komárom
Komárom
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
11/17/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 16MOLAJ Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Komárom45%
×Draw23%
Gyori ETO II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárom
1.75
Gyori ETO II
1.45

Komárom creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Komárom
1.64
Gyori ETO II
1.60

allows per match

Komárom
1.29
Gyori ETO II
1.87

finishing

Komárom+0.00on par
Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárom ↓

Gyori ETO II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Komárom or draw
68%
Komárom or Gyori ETO II
77%
Draw or Gyori ETO II
55%

Winning margin

Komárom wins by 2+
24%
Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Komárom 1+ goals
83%
Komárom 2+ goals
52%
Komárom 3+ goals
25%
Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
77%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
42%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Komárom (draw refunded)
58%
Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárom attack 1.64 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gyori ETO II attack 1.60 + Komárom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Komárom scores more
45%
level
23%
Gyori ETO II scores more
32%

Komárom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Komárom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Komárom vs Gyori ETO II

Gyori ETO II beat Komárom 3-2 in NB III - Northwest on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at MOLAJ Sporttelep in Komárom.