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Komárno vs Žilina II — 2. liga 2019

Komárno
Komárno
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Žilina II
Žilina II
3/23/20242. liga2. liga · Round 21Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Komárno55%
×Draw23%
Žilina II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárno
1.81
Žilina II
1.06

Komárno creates 71% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 98 away

creates per match

Komárno
1.76
Žilina II
1.30

allows per match

Komárno
0.82
Žilina II
1.87

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par
Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Žilina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Komárno or draw
78%
Komárno or Žilina II
77%
Draw or Žilina II
45%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+
31%
Žilina II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals
84%
Komárno 2+ goals
54%
Komárno 3+ goals
27%
Žilina II 1+ goals
65%
Žilina II 2+ goals
29%
Žilina II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)
71%
Žilina II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 1.76 + Žilina II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Žilina II attack 1.30 + Komárno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Komárno scores more
55%
level
23%
Žilina II scores more
22%

Komárno at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Komárno 3 – 0 Žilina II

Komárno beat Žilina II 3-0 in 2. liga on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa in Šaľa.