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Komárno vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Komárno
Komárno
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
10/30/20212. liga2. liga · Round 15Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Komárno62%
×Draw22%
Slavoj Trebišov16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárno
1.89
Slavoj Trebišov
0.85

Komárno creates 122% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

creates per match

Komárno
1.77
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Komárno
0.74
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Komárno or draw
84%
Komárno or Slavoj Trebišov
78%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
38%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+
37%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals
85%
Komárno 2+ goals
56%
Komárno 3+ goals
29%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
57%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
21%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)
79%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 1.77 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.89

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Komárno defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Komárno scores more
62%
level
22%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
16%

Komárno at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Komárno vs Slavoj Trebišov

Komárno beat Slavoj Trebišov 4-1 in 2. liga on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Komárno.