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Komárno vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — League #332 2026

Komárno
Komárno
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Š. Šmehyl 90' (pen), 27' (pen)
D. Ožvolda 68'
12/15/2024League #332League #332 · Round 18Štadión FC ViOn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Komárno64%
×Draw21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárno
1.91
Dukla Banská Bystrica
0.76

Komárno creates 151% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 27 away

creates per match

Komárno
2.00
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19

allows per match

Komárno
0.33
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.81

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Komárno or draw
86%
Komárno or Dukla Banská Bystrica
79%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
36%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+
39%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals
85%
Komárno 2+ goals
57%
Komárno 3+ goals
30%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
53%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
18%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)
82%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 2.00 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.91

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.19 + Komárno defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Komárno scores more
64%
level
21%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
14%

Komárno at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Š. ŠmehylKomárnoKomárno · D
9.6

Match Events

26'
Dominik ŽákPenalty confirmed
27'
Š. ŠmehylPenalty
59'
T. Slebodník← I. Mensah
60'
R. Pillár← G. Nagy
60'
V. Sliacky← N. Tamás
63'
Ondřej Rudzan
63'
Marián Pišoja
68'
D. Ožvolda↳ Š. Šmehyl
75'
A. Hanes← D. Richtárech
76'
M. Hlinka← N. Šikula
82'
Dominik ŽákPenalty confirmed
83'
Jakub SylvestrMissed penalty
83'
Ľubomír Willwéber
84'
C. Bayemi← J. Sylvestr
84'
T. Németh← D. Ožvolda
89'
Dominik ŽákPenalty confirmed
90+1'
Viktor Sliacky
90'
Š. ŠmehylPenalty

Possession

35%Komárno

Shots

18Komárno

Pass accuracy

46%Komárno

Statistics

KomárnoDukla
Overview
35%Possession65%
18Total Shots13
7Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots13
8On Target7
3Off Target1
7Blocked5
14Inside Box5
4Outside Box8
Passing
35%Possession65%
255Total Passes477
177Accurate Passes388
69%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
7Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

League #332: Komárno 3–0 Dukla Banská Bystrica

Komárno beat Dukla Banská Bystrica 3-0 in League #332 on December 15, 2024.

Goals: Š. Šmehyl (27' pen, 90' pen), D. Ožvolda (68').

Dukla Banská Bystrica controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Štadión FC ViOn in Zlaté Moravce.