Komárno 1–0 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Komárno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dolný Kubín

11/4/2023

2. liga · Round 15Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Komárno70%

×Draw19%

Dolný Kubín12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KomárnoExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.76

Komárno

2.17

Dolný Kubín

0.76

Komárno creates 186% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 30 away

1.76

creates per match

0.70

0.82

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Komárno

1.76

Dolný Kubín

0.70

allows per match

Komárno

0.82

Dolný Kubín

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Komárno+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárno ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Komárno or draw

88%

Komárno or Dolný Kubín

81%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

30%

Winning margin

Komárno wins by 2+

45%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Komárno 1+ goals

89%

Komárno 2+ goals

64%

Komárno 3+ goals

36%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

53%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

18%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Komárno (draw refunded)

85%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárno at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárno attack 1.76 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Komárno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Komárno scores more

70%

level

19%

Dolný Kubín scores more

12%

Komárno at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Komárno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff