Kom Berkovitsa 1–0 Vihar Slavyanovo: Result & Stats

Kom Berkovitsa

FT

1 – 0

Vihar Slavyanovo

3/17/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 19Stadion Mramor (Berkovitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kom Berkovitsa48%

×Draw25%

Vihar Slavyanovo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kom BerkovitsaExpected goals in this matchVihar Slavyanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.14

Kom Berkovitsa

1.61

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.14

Kom Berkovitsa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 95 away

2.07

creates per match

1.33

0.95

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Kom Berkovitsa

2.07

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.33

allows per match

Kom Berkovitsa

0.95

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom Berkovitsa ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kom Berkovitsa or draw

73%

Kom Berkovitsa or Vihar Slavyanovo

75%

Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo

52%

Winning margin

Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+

25%

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals

80%

Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals

48%

Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals

22%

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

68%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

32%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)

64%

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom Berkovitsa at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom Berkovitsa attack 2.07 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kom Berkovitsa scores more

48%

level

25%

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

27%

Kom Berkovitsa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kom Berkovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff