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Kolubara vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
5/19/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 6SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kolubara54%
×Draw26%
Sloboda Uzice19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.48
Sloboda Uzice
0.76

Kolubara creates 95% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
81%
Kolubara or Sloboda Uzice
74%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
46%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
28%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
77%
Kolubara 2+ goals
43%
Kolubara 3+ goals
19%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
53%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
18%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
74%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kolubara scores more
54%
level
26%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
19%

Kolubara at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolubara vs Sloboda Uzice

Sloboda Uzice beat Kolubara 1-0 in Prva Liga on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.