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Kolubara vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
10/9/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 13SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kolubara56%
×Draw25%
Sindjelic Beograd19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.59
Sindjelic Beograd
0.82

Kolubara creates 94% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
81%
Kolubara or Sindjelic Beograd
75%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
44%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
30%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
80%
Kolubara 2+ goals
47%
Kolubara 3+ goals
21%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
56%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
20%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
74%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kolubara scores more
56%
level
25%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
19%

Kolubara at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Kolubara 2–1 Sindjelic Beograd

Kolubara beat Sindjelic Beograd 2-1 in Prva Liga on October 9, 2019.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.