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Kolubara vs Rudar Velenje — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
4 – 1
Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Švajcarija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kolubara88%
×Draw9%
Rudar Velenje3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
2.96
Rudar Velenje
0.39

Kolubara creates 659% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kolubara
2.60
Rudar Velenje
0.17

allows per match

Kolubara
0.60
Rudar Velenje
3.33

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Rudar Velenje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
97%
Kolubara or Rudar Velenje
91%
Draw or Rudar Velenje
12%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
70%
Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
95%
Kolubara 2+ goals
79%
Kolubara 3+ goals
55%
Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
32%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
6%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
97%
Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 2.60 + Rudar Velenje defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.96

Rudar Velenje attack 0.17 + Kolubara defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Kolubara scores more
88%
level
9%
Rudar Velenje scores more
3%

Kolubara at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kolubara 4–1 Rudar Velenje

Kolubara beat Rudar Velenje 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Švajcarija in Zlatibor.