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Kolubara vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
9/22/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 8SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kolubara61%
×Draw22%
RFK Novi Sad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.87
RFK Novi Sad
0.86

Kolubara creates 117% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
83%
Kolubara or RFK Novi Sad
78%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
39%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
36%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
85%
Kolubara 2+ goals
56%
Kolubara 3+ goals
29%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
58%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
21%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
78%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.87

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kolubara scores more
61%
level
22%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
17%

Kolubara at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Kolubara 4–1 RFK Novi Sad

Kolubara beat RFK Novi Sad 4-1 in Prva Liga on September 22, 2023.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.