Kolubara 1–0 Proleter Novi SAD: Result & Stats

Kolubara

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Proleter Novi SAD

U. Đuranović 70'

5/14/2022

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 6SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kolubara45%

×Draw27%

Proleter Novi SAD28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolubaraExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.06

Kolubara

1.41

Proleter Novi SAD

1.06

Kolubara creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 72 away

1.26

creates per match

0.81

1.32

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Kolubara

1.26

Proleter Novi SAD

0.81

allows per match

Kolubara

1.32

Proleter Novi SAD

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw

72%

Kolubara or Proleter Novi SAD

73%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

55%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+

22%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals

76%

Kolubara 2+ goals

41%

Kolubara 3+ goals

17%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

65%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

29%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)

61%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.26 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Kolubara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kolubara scores more

45%

level

27%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

28%

Kolubara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

N. Andrić← B. Mladenović

64'

M. Gluščević← L. Serdar

70'

U. Đuranović

73'

D. Tumbas← N. Janković

77'

S. Stojanović← J. Ilić

77'

A. Kaluđerović← V. Mladenović

80'

M. Đokić← M. Filipović

80'

M. Vučetić← N. Vasiljević

83'

M. Vukasović← L. Kojić

83'

K. Pepić← B. Kun

Statistics

KolubaraProleter

Overview

0Total Shots0

4Corners2

0Fouls0

Shots

0Total Shots0

0On Target0

0Off Target0

0Blocked0

Goalkeeping

0Saves0

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0