Kolubara 0–2 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Kolubara

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mladost Novi Sad

11/5/2023

Prva Liga · Round 15SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kolubara38%

×Draw31%

Mladost Novi Sad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolubaraExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.94

Kolubara

1.08

Mladost Novi Sad

0.94

Kolubara creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 55 away

1.39

creates per match

0.98

0.90

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Kolubara

1.39

Mladost Novi Sad

0.98

allows per match

Kolubara

0.90

Mladost Novi Sad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw

69%

Kolubara or Mladost Novi Sad

69%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

62%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+

15%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals

66%

Kolubara 2+ goals

29%

Kolubara 3+ goals

10%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

61%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

24%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)

55%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kolubara scores more

38%

level

31%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

31%

Kolubara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff