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Kolubara vs Mladost Novi Sad — Super Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
10/8/2022Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 14SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kolubara42%
×Draw29%
Mladost Novi Sad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.23
Mladost Novi Sad
0.99

Kolubara creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.26
Mladost Novi Sad
0.65

allows per match

Kolubara
1.32
Mladost Novi Sad
1.20

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
70%
Kolubara or Mladost Novi Sad
71%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
58%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
18%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
71%
Kolubara 2+ goals
35%
Kolubara 3+ goals
13%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
63%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
26%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
58%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.26 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + Kolubara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kolubara scores more
42%
level
29%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
30%

Kolubara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Kolubara 0–0 Mladost Novi Sad

Kolubara and Mladost Novi Sad drew 0-0 in Super Liga on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.