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Kolubara vs Metalac GM — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
8/27/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 4SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kolubara47%
×Draw28%
Metalac GM25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.32
Metalac GM
0.88

Kolubara creates 50% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
Metalac GM
0.86

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
Metalac GM
1.26

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
75%
Kolubara or Metalac GM
72%
Draw or Metalac GM
53%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
22%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
73%
Kolubara 2+ goals
38%
Kolubara 3+ goals
15%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
59%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
22%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
65%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kolubara scores more
47%
level
28%
Metalac GM scores more
25%

Kolubara at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolubara vs Metalac GM

Kolubara and Metalac GM drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.