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Kolubara vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
12/9/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 20SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kolubara46%
×Draw27%
Jedinstvo Ub27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.37
Jedinstvo Ub
0.98

Kolubara creates 40% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
Jedinstvo Ub
1.35

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
73%
Kolubara or Jedinstvo Ub
73%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
54%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
22%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
75%
Kolubara 2+ goals
40%
Kolubara 3+ goals
16%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
62%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
26%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
63%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kolubara scores more
46%
level
27%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
27%

Kolubara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Kolubara 1–3 Jedinstvo Ub

Jedinstvo Ub beat Kolubara 3-1 in Prva Liga on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.