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Kolubara vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Backa
Backa
3/8/2020Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 25SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kolubara49%
×Draw28%
Backa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.34
Backa
0.82

Kolubara creates 63% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
Backa
1.29

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
77%
Kolubara or Backa
72%
Draw or Backa
51%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
23%
Backa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
74%
Kolubara 2+ goals
39%
Kolubara 3+ goals
15%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
20%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
68%
Backa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Backa attack 0.74 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kolubara scores more
49%
level
28%
Backa scores more
23%

Kolubara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolubara vs Backa

Kolubara beat Backa 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.