Kolstad 0–1 Steinkjer: Result & Stats

Kolstad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Steinkjer

9/24/2022

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 22Huseby Idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kolstad53%

×Draw18%

Steinkjer29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolstadExpected goals in this matchSteinkjer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

2.03

Kolstad

2.73

Steinkjer

2.03

Kolstad creates 34% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.88

creates per match

1.50

2.56

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Kolstad

1.88

Steinkjer

1.50

allows per match

Kolstad

2.56

Steinkjer

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolstad+0.00on par

Steinkjer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolstad ↓

Steinkjer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Kolstad or draw

71%

Kolstad or Steinkjer

82%

Draw or Steinkjer

47%

Winning margin

Kolstad wins by 2+

34%

Steinkjer wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kolstad 1+ goals

93%

Kolstad 2+ goals

75%

Kolstad 3+ goals

50%

Steinkjer 1+ goals

87%

Steinkjer 2+ goals

60%

Steinkjer 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kolstad (draw refunded)

64%

Steinkjer (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolstad at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.56 · 32 matches

Steinkjer away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolstad attack 1.88 + Steinkjer defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.73

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Kolstad defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kolstad scores more

53%

level

18%

Steinkjer scores more

29%

Kolstad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kolstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff