Kolstad 3–2 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Kolstad

FT

3 – 2

Kristiansund II

5/7/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 5Huseby Idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kolstad42%

×Draw21%

Kristiansund II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolstadExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.97

Kolstad

2.12

Kristiansund II

1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.88

creates per match

1.38

2.56

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Kolstad

1.88

Kristiansund II

1.38

allows per match

Kolstad

2.56

Kristiansund II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolstad+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolstad ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Kolstad or draw

63%

Kolstad or Kristiansund II

79%

Draw or Kristiansund II

58%

Winning margin

Kolstad wins by 2+

24%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kolstad 1+ goals

88%

Kolstad 2+ goals

62%

Kolstad 3+ goals

35%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

86%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

58%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Kolstad (draw refunded)

54%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolstad at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.56 · 32 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolstad attack 1.88 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Kolstad defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kolstad scores more

42%

level

21%

Kristiansund II scores more

37%

Kolstad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kolstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff