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Kolstad vs Innstranden — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Kolstad
Kolstad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Innstranden
Innstranden
9/11/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 20Huseby Idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kolstad53%
×Draw19%
Innstranden29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolstad
2.67
Innstranden
1.97

Kolstad creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kolstad
1.88
Innstranden
1.38

allows per match

Kolstad
2.56
Innstranden
3.46

finishing

Kolstad+0.00on par
Innstranden+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolstad ↓

Innstranden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Kolstad or draw
71%
Kolstad or Innstranden
81%
Draw or Innstranden
47%

Winning margin

Kolstad wins by 2+
33%
Innstranden wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kolstad 1+ goals
93%
Kolstad 2+ goals
74%
Kolstad 3+ goals
49%
Innstranden 1+ goals
86%
Innstranden 2+ goals
58%
Innstranden 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kolstad (draw refunded)
65%
Innstranden (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolstad at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.56 · 32 matches

Innstranden away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolstad attack 1.88 + Innstranden defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.67

Innstranden attack 1.38 + Kolstad defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kolstad scores more
53%
level
19%
Innstranden scores more
29%

Kolstad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kolstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolstad vs Innstranden

Kolstad beat Innstranden 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Huseby Idrettspark in Trondheim.