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Kolstad vs Bodø / Glimt II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Kolstad
Kolstad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bodø / Glimt II
Bodø / Glimt II
10/9/20223. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 24Huseby Idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kolstad48%
×Draw20%
Bodø / Glimt II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolstad
2.38
Bodø / Glimt II
1.92

Kolstad creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kolstad
1.88
Bodø / Glimt II
1.27

allows per match

Kolstad
2.56
Bodø / Glimt II
2.88

finishing

Kolstad+0.00on par
Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolstad ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Kolstad or draw
68%
Kolstad or Bodø / Glimt II
80%
Draw or Bodø / Glimt II
52%

Winning margin

Kolstad wins by 2+
29%
Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kolstad 1+ goals
91%
Kolstad 2+ goals
68%
Kolstad 3+ goals
42%
Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals
85%
Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals
57%
Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kolstad (draw refunded)
60%
Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolstad at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.56 · 32 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolstad attack 1.88 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.38

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.27 + Kolstad defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kolstad scores more
48%
level
20%
Bodø / Glimt II scores more
32%

Kolstad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kolstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Kolstad 2–1 Bodø / Glimt II

Kolstad beat Bodø / Glimt II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Huseby Idrettspark in Trondheim.