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Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oleksandria
Oleksandria
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka59%
×Draw22%
Oleksandria19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolos Kovalivka
1.92
Oleksandria
1.00

Kolos Kovalivka creates 92% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka
2.00
Oleksandria
1.00

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Oleksandria
1.83

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka+0.00on par
Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Oleksandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw
81%
Kolos Kovalivka or Oleksandria
78%
Draw or Oleksandria
41%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
35%
Oleksandria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
85%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
57%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
30%
Oleksandria 1+ goals
63%
Oleksandria 2+ goals
26%
Oleksandria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
75%
Oleksandria (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 2.00 + Oleksandria defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Oleksandria attack 1.00 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more
59%
level
22%
Oleksandria scores more
19%

Kolos Kovalivka at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Kolos
Oleksandria
Ruslan Kostyshyn
Manager: Ruslan Kostyshyn
Volodymyr Sharan
Manager: Volodymyr Sharan

Match Recap: Kolos Kovalivka vs Oleksandria

Kolos Kovalivka beat Oleksandria 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.