Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Kolos Kovalivka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oleksandria

V. Baboglo 51'

8/22/2021

Premier League · Round 5Stadion Kovalivka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka39%

×Draw28%

Oleksandria33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolos KovalivkaExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Kolos Kovalivka

1.22

Oleksandria

1.11

Kolos Kovalivka creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

1.23

0.99

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka

1.22

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka

0.99

Oleksandria

1.22

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka-0.41scores less

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw

67%

Kolos Kovalivka or Oleksandria

72%

Draw or Oleksandria

61%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

17%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

70%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

34%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

12%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

67%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

30%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

54%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.99 · 16 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.22 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

39%

level

28%

Oleksandria scores more

33%

Kolos Kovalivka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

V. Gavrysh← Y. Novak

39'

Oleksandr Demchenko

46'

D. Ustymenko← C. Spinelli

46'

S. Rybalka← O. Demchenko

51'

V. Baboglo↳ S. Rybalka

56'

Vadym Milko

57'

A. Bogdanov← A. Ngamba

65'

Andrii Bohdanov

65'

V. Odaryuk← O. Kozhushko

70'

Ivan Kalyuzhny

75'

V. Lysenko← N. Sichinava

75'

D. Kostyshyn← A. Pavlovets

75'

O. Chornomorets← T. Sakiv

78'

Kaspars Dubra

83'

Vitalii Havrysh

87'

Diego Carioca

90+2'

K. Dryshlyuk← I. Kalyuzhnyi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KolosOleksandria

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots16

4Corners7

18Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target6

7Off Target10

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1