Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 Obolon'-Brovar: Result & Stats

Kolos Kovalivka

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Obolon'-Brovar

12/2/2023

Premier League · Round 16Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka48%

×Draw27%

Obolon'-Brovar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolos KovalivkaExpected goals in this matchObolon'-Brovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.91

Kolos Kovalivka

1.39

Obolon'-Brovar

0.91

Kolos Kovalivka creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.34

creates per match

0.65

1.16

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka

1.34

Obolon'-Brovar

0.65

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka

1.16

Obolon'-Brovar

1.44

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka-0.21scores less

Obolon'-Brovar-0.02on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Obolon'-Brovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw

75%

Kolos Kovalivka or Obolon'-Brovar

73%

Draw or Obolon'-Brovar

52%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

23%

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

75%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

40%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

16%

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

60%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

23%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

66%

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Obolon'-Brovar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.34 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.65 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

48%

level

27%

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

25%

Kolos Kovalivka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff