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Kolos Kovalivka U19 vs Shakhtar Donetsk U19 — U19 League 2023

Kolos Kovalivka U19
Kolos Kovalivka U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
12/5/2025U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka U1932%
×Draw22%
Shakhtar Donetsk U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.61
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.96

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka U19
2.18
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
2.80

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.13
Shakhtar Donetsk U19
1.04

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka U19+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka U19 ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka U19 or draw
54%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
78%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk U19
68%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka U19 wins by 2+
15%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka U19 1+ goals
80%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 2+ goals
48%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 3+ goals
22%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 1+ goals
86%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 2+ goals
58%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka U19 (draw refunded)
41%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka U19 attack 2.18 + Shakhtar Donetsk U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.61

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 attack 2.80 + Kolos Kovalivka U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kolos Kovalivka U19 scores more
32%
level
22%
Shakhtar Donetsk U19 scores more
46%

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Kolos Kovalivka U19 1–3 Shakhtar Donetsk U19

Shakhtar Donetsk U19 beat Kolos Kovalivka U19 3-1 in U19 League on December 5, 2025.