Kolos Kovalivka U19 5–0 Inhulets' U19

Kolos Kovalivka U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inhulets' U19

8/9/2024

U19 League · Round 2NTB Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka U1974%

×Draw16%

Inhulets' U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolos Kovalivka U19Expected goals in this matchInhulets' U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.83

Kolos Kovalivka U19

2.56

Inhulets' U19

0.83

Kolos Kovalivka U19 creates 208% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.18

creates per match

0.53

1.13

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka U19

2.18

Inhulets' U19

0.53

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka U19

1.13

Inhulets' U19

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka U19+0.00on par

Inhulets' U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka U19 ↓

Inhulets' U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka U19 or draw

90%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 or Inhulets' U19

84%

Draw or Inhulets' U19

26%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka U19 wins by 2+

52%

Inhulets' U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka U19 1+ goals

92%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 2+ goals

72%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 3+ goals

46%

Inhulets' U19 1+ goals

56%

Inhulets' U19 2+ goals

20%

Inhulets' U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Inhulets' U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Inhulets' U19 away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka U19 attack 2.18 + Inhulets' U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.56

Inhulets' U19 attack 0.53 + Kolos Kovalivka U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kolos Kovalivka U19 scores more

74%

level

16%

Inhulets' U19 scores more

10%

Kolos Kovalivka U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff