Kolomna 1–4 Saransk: Result & Stats

Kolomna

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Saransk

8/29/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kolomna25%

×Draw21%

Saransk54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolomnaExpected goals in this matchSaransk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.15

Kolomna

1.41

Saransk

2.15

Saransk creates 52% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

2.31

1.98

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Kolomna

1.44

Saransk

2.31

allows per match

Kolomna

1.98

Saransk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par

Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Saransk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw

46%

Kolomna or Saransk

79%

Draw or Saransk

75%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+

11%

Saransk wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals

76%

Kolomna 2+ goals

41%

Kolomna 3+ goals

17%

Saransk 1+ goals

88%

Saransk 2+ goals

63%

Saransk 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)

32%

Saransk (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

Saransk away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.44 + Saransk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Saransk attack 2.31 + Kolomna defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kolomna scores more

25%

level

21%

Saransk scores more

54%

Saransk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff