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Kolomna vs Sakhalinets — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sakhalinets
Sakhalinets
8/27/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kolomna25%
×Draw23%
Sakhalinets53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.22
Sakhalinets
1.89

Sakhalinets creates 55% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.44
Sakhalinets
1.80

allows per match

Kolomna
1.98
Sakhalinets
1.00

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Sakhalinets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Sakhalinets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
47%
Kolomna or Sakhalinets
77%
Draw or Sakhalinets
75%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
10%
Sakhalinets wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
70%
Kolomna 2+ goals
34%
Kolomna 3+ goals
12%
Sakhalinets 1+ goals
85%
Sakhalinets 2+ goals
56%
Sakhalinets 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
32%
Sakhalinets (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

Sakhalinets away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.44 + Sakhalinets defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sakhalinets attack 1.80 + Kolomna defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kolomna scores more
25%
level
23%
Sakhalinets scores more
53%

Sakhalinets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sakhalinets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Kolomna 1–1 Sakhalinets

Kolomna and Sakhalinets drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Kolomna.