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Kolomna vs Rodina Moskva — Cup 2019

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
9/2/2020CupCup · 3rd RoundStadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kolomna17%
×Draw19%
Rodina Moskva64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.14
Rodina Moskva
2.35

Rodina Moskva creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.40
Rodina Moskva
2.50

allows per match

Kolomna
2.20
Rodina Moskva
0.88

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
36%
Kolomna or Rodina Moskva
81%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
83%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
6%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
68%
Kolomna 2+ goals
32%
Kolomna 3+ goals
11%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
90%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
68%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
21%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.40 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Rodina Moskva attack 2.50 + Kolomna defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kolomna scores more
17%
level
19%
Rodina Moskva scores more
64%

Rodina Moskva at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kolomna 2–3 Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Kolomna 3-2 in Cup on September 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Kolomna.