Kolomna 3–2 Peresvet Podolsk: Result & Stats

Kolomna

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Peresvet Podolsk

11/10/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Kolomna46%

×Draw22%

Peresvet Podolsk32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolomnaExpected goals in this matchPeresvet Podolsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.61

Kolomna

1.98

Peresvet Podolsk

1.61

Kolomna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 42 away

1.44

creates per match

1.24

1.98

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Kolomna

1.44

Peresvet Podolsk

1.24

allows per match

Kolomna

1.98

Peresvet Podolsk

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw

68%

Kolomna or Peresvet Podolsk

78%

Draw or Peresvet Podolsk

54%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+

26%

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals

86%

Kolomna 2+ goals

59%

Kolomna 3+ goals

31%

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

80%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

48%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)

59%

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.44 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.98

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Kolomna defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kolomna scores more

46%

level

22%

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

32%

Kolomna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kolomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff