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Kolomna vs Kvant — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kvant
Kvant
9/22/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kolomna47%
×Draw23%
Kvant30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.85
Kvant
1.43

Kolomna creates 29% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 93 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.44
Kvant
0.88

allows per match

Kolomna
1.98
Kvant
2.26

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Kvant+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Kvant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
70%
Kolomna or Kvant
77%
Draw or Kvant
53%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
26%
Kvant wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
84%
Kolomna 2+ goals
55%
Kolomna 3+ goals
28%
Kvant 1+ goals
76%
Kvant 2+ goals
42%
Kvant 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
61%
Kvant (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

Kvant away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.44 + Kvant defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kvant attack 0.88 + Kolomna defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kolomna scores more
47%
level
23%
Kvant scores more
30%

Kolomna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kolomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Kolomna 2–0 Kvant

Kolomna beat Kvant 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Kolomna.