Kolomna 3–5 Dinamo Vologda: Result & Stats

Kolomna

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Vologda

10/19/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kolomna33%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Vologda42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolomnaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vologda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.48

Kolomna

1.27

Dinamo Vologda

1.48

Dinamo Vologda creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 60 away

1.21

creates per match

1.13

1.82

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kolomna

1.21

Dinamo Vologda

1.13

allows per match

Kolomna

1.82

Dinamo Vologda

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Dinamo Vologda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw

58%

Kolomna or Dinamo Vologda

75%

Draw or Dinamo Vologda

67%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+

14%

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals

72%

Kolomna 2+ goals

36%

Kolomna 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals

77%

Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals

43%

Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)

44%

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Dinamo Vologda away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.21 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.13 + Kolomna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kolomna scores more

33%

level

25%

Dinamo Vologda scores more

42%

Dinamo Vologda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff