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Kolomna vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
10/5/2025Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kolomna30%
×Draw24%
Chertanovo Moscow46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.36
Chertanovo Moscow
1.73

Chertanovo Moscow creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.21
Chertanovo Moscow
1.65

allows per match

Kolomna
1.82
Chertanovo Moscow
1.52

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
54%
Kolomna or Chertanovo Moscow
76%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
70%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
13%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
74%
Kolomna 2+ goals
39%
Kolomna 3+ goals
16%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
82%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
52%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
40%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.21 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Kolomna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kolomna scores more
30%
level
24%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
46%

Chertanovo Moscow at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Kolomna 2–3 Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Kolomna 3-2 in Second League - Group 2 on October 5, 2025.