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Köln U19 vs Verl U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Köln U19
Köln U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Verl U19
Verl U19
4/20/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 23Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Köln U1970%
×Draw17%
Verl U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köln U19
2.54
Verl U19
1.02

Köln U19 creates 149% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 23 away

creates per match

Köln U19
2.37
Verl U19
1.09

allows per match

Köln U19
0.96
Verl U19
2.70

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par
Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Verl U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw
87%
Köln U19 or Verl U19
83%
Draw or Verl U19
30%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+
48%
Verl U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals
92%
Köln U19 2+ goals
72%
Köln U19 3+ goals
46%
Verl U19 1+ goals
64%
Verl U19 2+ goals
27%
Verl U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)
84%
Verl U19 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.37 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.54

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Köln U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Köln U19 scores more
70%
level
17%
Verl U19 scores more
13%

Köln U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 1–0 Verl U19

Köln U19 beat Verl U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.