Köln U19 2–1 Racing Union U19: Result & Stats

Köln U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Racing Union U19

F. Schenten 23', 17'

W. Messan 20'

11/5/2025

UEFA Youth League · Semi-finalsFranz-Kremer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Köln U1959%

×Draw20%

Racing Union U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Köln U19Expected goals in this matchRacing Union U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.29

Köln U19

2.25

Racing Union U19

1.29

Köln U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

2.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Köln U19

1.50

Racing Union U19

0.33

allows per match

Köln U19

2.25

Racing Union U19

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par

Racing Union U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Racing Union U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw

79%

Köln U19 or Racing Union U19

80%

Draw or Racing Union U19

41%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+

37%

Racing Union U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals

89%

Köln U19 2+ goals

65%

Köln U19 3+ goals

39%

Racing Union U19 1+ goals

72%

Racing Union U19 2+ goals

37%

Racing Union U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Racing Union U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Racing Union U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 1.50 + Racing Union U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Racing Union U19 attack 0.33 + Köln U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Köln U19 scores more

59%

level

20%

Racing Union U19 scores more

21%

Köln U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

F. Schenten↳ A. Puzzo

20'

W. Messan

23'

F. Schenten↳ F. Harchaoui

42'

49'

57'

64'

64'

L. Volp← A. Kotya-Fofana

64'

K. Irmiev← N. Zimmermann

64'

K. Ekweribe← F. Schenten

71'

T. Karadeniz← A. Puzzo

75'

J. Ngaleu

78'

D. Ramcilovic← A. Douas

85'

W. Lukoki

Köln

Racing

1

7

6

15

3

18

▼

Douas

4

Garcia

8

Ngaleu

11

⚽

9

14

12

2

5

4

▼

Kotya-Fof

3

▼

Spitali

10

A

Harchaoui

8

▼

Zimmerman

6

Romers

7

Ponente-R

11

A

▼

Puzzo

9

⚽2

▼

Schenten

Manager: Stefan Ruthenbeck

64'▲D. Furst←▼S. Spitali

64'▲L. Volp←▼A. Kotya-Fofana

64'▲K. Irmiev←▼N. Zimmermann

64'▲K. Ekweribe←▼F. Schenten

71'▲T. Karadeniz←▼A. Puzzo

Köln U19 substitutes

23Schmitz13Furst14Volp15Irmiev16Markoski17Guzel18Ekweribe19Karadeniz20Tampier

78'▲D. Ramcilovic←▼A. Douas

Racing Union U19 substitutes

31Cuesta10Bisevac12Alija13Krings21Giesteira16Rasiti17Ramcilovic19Catic20Borg

UEFA Youth League: Köln U19 2–1 Racing Union U19

Köln U19 beat Racing Union U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 5, 2025.

Goals: F. Schenten (17', 23'), W. Messan (20').

The match was played at Franz-Kremer Stadion in Cologne.

Köln U19 vs Racing Union U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Köln U19 2–1 Racing Union U19