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Köln U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Köln U19
Köln U19
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
12/3/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 13Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Köln U1959%
×Draw21%
MSV Duisburg U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köln U19
2.12
MSV Duisburg U19
1.16

Köln U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

Köln U19
2.37
MSV Duisburg U19
1.35

allows per match

Köln U19
0.96
MSV Duisburg U19
1.87

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par
MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw
80%
Köln U19 or MSV Duisburg U19
79%
Draw or MSV Duisburg U19
41%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+
36%
MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals
88%
Köln U19 2+ goals
62%
Köln U19 3+ goals
35%
MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
69%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
32%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)
74%
MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.87 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.37 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.12

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.35 + Köln U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Köln U19 scores more
59%
level
21%
MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
20%

Köln U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Köln U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Köln U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.