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Köln U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Köln U19
Köln U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
F. Schenten 60'
L. Stapelmann 4'
N. Pafla 90'
L. Isufi 80' (OG)
8/20/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Köln U1943%
×Draw22%
Mainz 05 U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köln U19
1.87
Mainz 05 U19
1.65

Köln U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

creates per match

Köln U19
2.51
Mainz 05 U19
2.40

allows per match

Köln U19
0.90
Mainz 05 U19
1.23

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw
66%
Köln U19 or Mainz 05 U19
78%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
57%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+
23%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals
85%
Köln U19 2+ goals
56%
Köln U19 3+ goals
29%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
81%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
49%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.51, concedes 0.90 · 73 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.51 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.87

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Köln U19 scores more
43%
level
22%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
34%

Köln U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Stapelmann
60'
F. Schenten
80'
L. IsufiOwn goal
90'
N. Pafla
Köln
Mainz
Stefan Ruthenbeck
Manager: Stefan Ruthenbeck
J. Kirchhoff
Manager: J. Kirchhoff

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 2–2 Mainz 05 U19

Köln U19 and Mainz 05 U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Stapelmann (4'), F. Schenten (60'), L. Isufi (80' o.g.), N. Pafla (90').

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.