Köln U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 28+ matches
Köln U1973%
Fortuna Köln U1911%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Köln U19 creates 198% more chances
Season form · 73 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Köln U19 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Köln U19 at home — creates 2.51, concedes 0.90 · 73 matches
Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Köln U19 attack 2.51 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50
Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 73%?"
Köln U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 73% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes
Head to Head
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Werder Bremen U19
Havelse U19
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Rot-Weiss Essen U19
Karlsruher SC U19
Ulm U19
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Viktoria Berlin U19
Holstein Kiel U19
Hansa Rostock U19
Saarbrücken U19
BAK 07 U19
Darmstadt 98 U19
Jahn Regensburg U19
Hallescher FC U19Fortuna Köln U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
Eintracht Braunsch U19
Unterhaching U19
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
Hombrucher SV U19
Rot-Weiß Walldorf U19
Blumenthaler SV U19
Kickers Offenbach U19
FK Pirmasens U19
Schott Mainz U19
Osnabrück U19
Lübeck U19
Elversberg U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
SC Borea Dresden U19
Wacker Burghausen U19
SG Unterrath U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Köln U19 host Fortuna Köln U19 on Saturday, 25 November 2017 at 12:00. The match is part of the U19 Bundesliga 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Köln U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19
Köln U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 25, 2017.
Goals: K. Goden (23', 36'), S. Karweina (26', 39'), T. Ostrák (58'), K. Akalp (65').
The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.