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Köln II vs FV Engers 07 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Köln II
Köln II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
7/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Köln II72%
×Draw13%
FV Engers 0715%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köln II
4.17
FV Engers 07
2.00

Köln II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Köln II
4.33
FV Engers 07
2.00

allows per match

Köln II
2.00
FV Engers 07
4.00

finishing

Köln II+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 94Under: 694%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 85No: 1585%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln II ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Köln II or draw
85%
Köln II or FV Engers 07
87%
Draw or FV Engers 07
28%

Winning margin

Köln II wins by 2+
54%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Köln II 1+ goals
98%
Köln II 2+ goals
91%
Köln II 3+ goals
75%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
86%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
59%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Köln II (draw refunded)
83%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln II at home — creates 4.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln II attack 4.33 + FV Engers 07 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.17

FV Engers 07 attack 2.00 + Köln II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Köln II scores more
72%
level
13%
FV Engers 07 scores more
15%

Köln II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Köln II 3–1 FV Engers 07

Köln II beat FV Engers 07 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2026.