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Kolkheti Poti vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
FT
0 – 3
Shukura
Shukura
10/23/2017Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Regular SeasonSaragbo Baza Parki-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kolkheti Poti44%
×Draw25%
Shukura31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti
1.60
Shukura
1.30

Kolkheti Poti creates 23% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.30
Shukura
0.84

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.77
Shukura
1.91

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw
69%
Kolkheti Poti or Shukura
75%
Draw or Shukura
56%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
23%
Shukura wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
80%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
47%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
22%
Shukura 1+ goals
73%
Shukura 2+ goals
37%
Shukura 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
59%
Shukura (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.30 + Shukura defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shukura attack 0.84 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more
44%
level
25%
Shukura scores more
31%

Kolkheti Poti at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Kolkheti Poti 0–3 Shukura

Shukura beat Kolkheti Poti 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga on October 23, 2017.

The match was played at Saragbo Baza Parki-Arena in Poti.