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Kolkheti Poti II vs WIT Georgia II — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Kolkheti Poti II
Kolkheti Poti II
FT
4 – 1
WIT Georgia II
WIT Georgia II
6/10/2024David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 2nd RoundPazisis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kolkheti Poti II61%
×Draw23%
WIT Georgia II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti II
1.75
WIT Georgia II
0.75

Kolkheti Poti II creates 133% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti II
2.00
WIT Georgia II
0.75

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti II
0.75
WIT Georgia II
1.50

finishing

Kolkheti Poti II+0.00on par
WIT Georgia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti II ↓

WIT Georgia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti II or draw
84%
Kolkheti Poti II or WIT Georgia II
77%
Draw or WIT Georgia II
39%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti II wins by 2+
35%
WIT Georgia II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti II 1+ goals
83%
Kolkheti Poti II 2+ goals
52%
Kolkheti Poti II 3+ goals
25%
WIT Georgia II 1+ goals
53%
WIT Georgia II 2+ goals
17%
WIT Georgia II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti II (draw refunded)
80%
WIT Georgia II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

WIT Georgia II away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti II attack 2.00 + WIT Georgia II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

WIT Georgia II attack 0.75 + Kolkheti Poti II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kolkheti Poti II scores more
61%
level
23%
WIT Georgia II scores more
16%

Kolkheti Poti II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Kolkheti Poti II 4–1 WIT Georgia II

Kolkheti Poti II beat WIT Georgia II 4-1 in David Kipiani Cup on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Pazisis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Poti.