Kolkheti Poti II 4–0 Algeti: Result & Stats

Kolkheti Poti II

4 – 0

Algeti

5/13/2024

David Kipiani Cup · 1st RoundPazisis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kolkheti Poti II73%

×Draw17%

Algeti10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolkheti Poti IIExpected goals in this matchAlgeti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.71

Kolkheti Poti II

2.33

Algeti

0.71

Kolkheti Poti II creates 228% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti II

2.00

Algeti

0.67

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti II

0.75

Algeti

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolkheti Poti II+0.00on par

Algeti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti II ↓

Algeti →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti II or draw

90%

Kolkheti Poti II or Algeti

83%

Draw or Algeti

27%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti II wins by 2+

50%

Algeti wins by 2+

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti II 1+ goals

90%

Kolkheti Poti II 2+ goals

67%

Kolkheti Poti II 3+ goals

41%

Algeti 1+ goals

51%

Algeti 2+ goals

16%

Algeti 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti II (draw refunded)

88%

Algeti (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Algeti away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti II attack 2.00 + Algeti defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Algeti attack 0.67 + Kolkheti Poti II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kolkheti Poti II scores more

73%

level

17%

Algeti scores more

10%

Kolkheti Poti II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff