Kolkheti Khobi 1–2 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Kolkheti Khobi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

11/3/2023

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 32Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kolkheti Khobi40%

×Draw26%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolkheti KhobiExpected goals in this matchLokomotivi Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.27

Kolkheti Khobi

1.38

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

1.11

creates per match

1.22

1.33

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Kolkheti Khobi

1.11

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.22

allows per match

Kolkheti Khobi

1.33

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Khobi ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kolkheti Khobi or draw

66%

Kolkheti Khobi or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

74%

Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

60%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+

18%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals

75%

Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals

40%

Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals

16%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals

36%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)

53%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Khobi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Khobi attack 1.11 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.22 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kolkheti Khobi scores more

40%

level

26%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more

34%

Kolkheti Khobi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kolkheti Khobi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff