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Kolkheti Khobi vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Kolkheti Khobi
Kolkheti Khobi
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
8/17/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 20Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kolkheti Khobi43%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Tbilisi II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Khobi
1.59
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.33

Kolkheti Khobi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 56 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Khobi
1.11
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.34

allows per match

Kolkheti Khobi
1.33
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.07

finishing

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Khobi ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kolkheti Khobi or draw
68%
Kolkheti Khobi or Dinamo Tbilisi II
76%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
57%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals
80%
Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals
47%
Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)
58%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Khobi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Khobi attack 1.11 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.34 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kolkheti Khobi scores more
43%
level
24%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
32%

Kolkheti Khobi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kolkheti Khobi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Kolkheti Khobi 2–4 Dinamo Tbilisi II

Dinamo Tbilisi II beat Kolkheti Khobi 4-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Khobi.