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Kolín vs Dukla Praha II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kolín
Kolín
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kolín53%
×Draw20%
Dukla Praha II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolín
2.25
Dukla Praha II
1.58

Kolín creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kolín
2.33
Dukla Praha II
1.67

allows per match

Kolín
1.50
Dukla Praha II
2.17

finishing

Kolín+0.00on par
Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolín ↓

Dukla Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kolín or draw
73%
Kolín or Dukla Praha II
80%
Draw or Dukla Praha II
47%

Winning margin

Kolín wins by 2+
32%
Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kolín 1+ goals
89%
Kolín 2+ goals
65%
Kolín 3+ goals
39%
Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
79%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
47%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kolín (draw refunded)
66%
Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolín at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolín attack 2.33 + Dukla Praha II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Dukla Praha II attack 1.67 + Kolín defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kolín scores more
53%
level
20%
Dukla Praha II scores more
27%

Kolín at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolín vs Dukla Praha II

Dukla Praha II beat Kolín 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.