Kolding IF 1–1 Odense: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Kolding IF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Odense

5/17/2025

1. Division · Promotion Round - 9Autocentralen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kolding IF25%

×Draw23%

Odense52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolding IFExpected goals in this matchOdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.80

Kolding IF

1.17

Odense

1.80

Odense creates 54% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

1.40

creates per match

2.31

1.29

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Kolding IF

1.40

Odense

2.31

allows per match

Kolding IF

1.29

Odense

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Odense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

Odense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw

48%

Kolding IF or Odense

77%

Draw or Odense

75%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+

10%

Odense wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals

69%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

33%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

11%

Odense 1+ goals

83%

Odense 2+ goals

54%

Odense 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

32%

Odense (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 80 matches

Odense away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 1.40 + Odense defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Odense attack 2.31 + Kolding IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kolding IF scores more

25%

level

23%

Odense scores more

52%

Odense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff