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Kolding IF vs Frem — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Kolding IF
Kolding IF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Frem
Frem
Y. Dieudonne 81'
S. Denius 77' (pen)
E. Jorgensen 72'
H. Derrar 23'
10/1/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9Autocentralen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kolding IF50%
×Draw26%
Frem24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolding IF
1.52
Frem
0.96

Kolding IF creates 58% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kolding IF
1.48
Frem
1.06

allows per match

Kolding IF
0.85
Frem
1.55

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par
Frem+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

Frem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw
76%
Kolding IF or Frem
74%
Draw or Frem
50%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+
26%
Frem wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals
78%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
45%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
20%
Frem 1+ goals
62%
Frem 2+ goals
25%
Frem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)
68%
Frem (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Frem away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 1.48 + Frem defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Frem attack 1.06 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kolding IF scores more
50%
level
26%
Frem scores more
24%

Kolding IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
H. Derrar
72'
E. Jorgensen
77'
S. DeniusPenalty
81'
Y. Dieudonne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Kolding IF 2–2 Frem

Kolding IF and Frem drew 2-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 1, 2022.

Goals: H. Derrar (23'), E. Jorgensen (72'), S. Denius (77' pen), Y. Dieudonne (81').

The match was played at Autocentralen Park in Kolding.