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Kolding IF vs FC Noah — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kolding IF
Kolding IF
FT
3 – 1
FC Noah
FC Noah
2/18/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Arcadia Futbol Kompleksi - Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kolding IF60%
×Draw23%
FC Noah18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolding IF
1.84
FC Noah
0.89

Kolding IF creates 107% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kolding IF
2.13
FC Noah
0.78

allows per match

Kolding IF
1.00
FC Noah
1.56

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw
82%
Kolding IF or FC Noah
77%
Draw or FC Noah
40%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+
35%
FC Noah wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals
84%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
55%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
28%
FC Noah 1+ goals
59%
FC Noah 2+ goals
22%
FC Noah 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)
77%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 2.13 + FC Noah defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

FC Noah attack 0.78 + Kolding IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kolding IF scores more
60%
level
23%
FC Noah scores more
18%

Kolding IF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolding IF vs FC Noah

Kolding IF beat FC Noah 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 18, 2020.

The match was played at Arcadia Futbol Kompleksi - Field 2 in Belek.