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Kokand-1912 vs Xorazm — Pro League A 2026

Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Xorazm
Xorazm
A. Merzlyakov 65'
Z. Akramov 60'
Unknown 12'
4/2/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kokand-191248%
×Draw29%
Xorazm23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kokand-1912
1.28
Xorazm
0.79

Kokand-1912 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kokand-1912
1.14
Xorazm
0.64

allows per match

Kokand-1912
0.93
Xorazm
1.43

finishing

Kokand-1912+0.00on par
Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 61Yes: 3961%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kokand-1912 ↓

Xorazm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kokand-1912 or draw
77%
Kokand-1912 or Xorazm
71%
Draw or Xorazm
52%

Winning margin

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
22%
Xorazm wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kokand-1912 1+ goals
72%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
37%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
14%
Xorazm 1+ goals
55%
Xorazm 2+ goals
19%
Xorazm 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
68%
Xorazm (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kokand-1912 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Xorazm away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kokand-1912 attack 1.14 + Xorazm defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Xorazm attack 0.64 + Kokand-1912 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kokand-1912 scores more
48%
level
29%
Xorazm scores more
23%

Kokand-1912 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kokand-1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
60'
Z. Akramov
65'
A. Merzlyakov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kokand-1912 vs Xorazm

Kokand-1912 beat Xorazm 3-0 in Pro League A on April 2, 2024.

Goals: ? (12'), Z. Akramov (60'), A. Merzlyakov (65').