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Kokand-1912 vs Qizilqum — Super League 2026

Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
Preview
16:00
Qizilqum
Qizilqum
10/30/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26
Big match
47%
Kokand-1912
model favours
47%27%26%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Kokand-191247%
×Draw27%
Qizilqum26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kokand-1912
1.43
Qizilqum
0.98

Kokand-1912 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 97 away

creates per match

Kokand-1912
1.30
Qizilqum
0.71

allows per match

Kokand-1912
1.26
Qizilqum
1.55

finishing

Kokand-1912+0.00on par
Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kokand-1912 ↓

Qizilqum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kokand-1912 or draw
74%
Kokand-1912 or Qizilqum
73%
Draw or Qizilqum
53%

Winning margin

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
23%
Qizilqum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kokand-1912 1+ goals
76%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
42%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
17%
Qizilqum 1+ goals
62%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
26%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
65%
Qizilqum (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kokand-1912 at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kokand-1912 attack 1.30 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kokand-1912 scores more
47%
level
27%
Qizilqum scores more
26%

Kokand-1912 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kokand-1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kokand-1912
LLWLL
Qizilqum
DLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kokand-1912 face Qizilqum (Super League)

Super League returns with Kokand-1912 hosting Qizilqum. Match starts October 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.